A/HRC/40/CRP.1 transporting crude oil through the 1,600 kilometres oil pipeline running from the north of the country to Port Sudan, on the Red Sea.977 These payments were only agreed after talks between the two countries broke down in January 2012, at which point South Sudan completely shut down its oil production, an ostensibly rash move which seriously damaged both its economy as well as its existing oil infrastructure. The situation was only resolved with the signing of the Cooperation Agreement in September 2012, and oil production only resumed in April 2013.978 Meanwhile, the newly agreed costs were fixed and not pegged to the international oil prices, which then more than halved between 2012 and 2015.979 In 2017, the repayment schedule in the agreement was reportedly renegotiated, taking into account lower oil prices. 980 While official oil revenue figures are reportedly not available, South Sudan’s gross revenue was estimated to be USD $2.02 billion in 2017.981 The 2018/2019 budget notes that net oil revenues “available for the budget were estimated at SSP 71.800 billion”. 982 As noted, South Sudan currently produces only around 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day,983 of which 40 percent goes to operational costs (also known as ‘cost oil’). Of the remaining 90,000 barrels, 20 percent goes to the international companies in the oil joint ventures (see below), leaving the government with the rest (e.g. 72,000 barrels). As a result, South Sudanese oil sells for USD $5 less than on the international market. 984 The outbreak of armed conflict in late 2013 further disrupted oil production in South Sudan as oil fields and installations were specifically targeted. South Sudan’s oil riches have thus remained one of the drivers of armed conflict, and ensuing violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. The Commission’s investigations in Unity State indicate that the current conflict continues to center around the oil-producing area, with the same ensuing adverse consequence and human rights violations that were seen in the period from 1985 to 2005. In addition, as discussed above, a strong correlation has been found to exist between the dependency of a country on exports of its commodities (in particular oil exports) and the outbreak of armed conflict if deliberate interventions are not made to ensure stability. Whilst some have expressed fears such a dependency could lead the South Sudan into a “vicious cycle of conflict and macroeconomic instability” 985the country has an opportunity, through the implementation of the R-ARCSS to develop a culture of political cooperation and sound economic and resource management to overcome the spiral of violence and instability. This would be in line with expert recommendations on redressing the ‘resource curse’, including by increasing revenue transparency. 986 977 UN Security Council, Interim Report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan, UN Doc No: S/2018/1049, 26 November 2018, para. 69; Agreement between the Government of the Republic of South Sudan and the Government of Republic of Sudan on Oil and Related Economic Matters, Article 4 (Financial Arrangements). 978 De Waal, A., “When Kleptocracy Becomes Insolvent: Brute Causes of the Civil War in South Sudan”, African Affairs, 113/452, 2014, pp. 362-365; Patey, L., The New Kings of Crude, China, India and the Global Struggle for Oil in Sudan and South Sudan, 2014, pp. 225-237. 979 The price of crude oil was at the ‘historically high levels’ of over USD 111 per barrel in 2011 and 2012. See United States Energy Information Administration, 2012 Brief: Average 2012 crude oil prices remain near 2011 levels. By late 2014 the price was under USD 30 per barrel. See The World Bank, South Sudan Poverty Profile, Findings from the 2015 wave of the High Frequency South Sudan Survey, 22 November 2016, p. 7. 980 Al Jazeera, “South Sudan holds oil conference to boost industry”, 21 November 2018, retrieved at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1fWNR2CUZE&t=24s. 981 Bloomberg, “Peace at Last for South Sudan? That May Depend on the Price of Oil”, 17 October 2018. 982 Republic of South Sudan Transitional Government of National Unity, Budget Speech FY 2018/2019 Presented to Transitional National Legislature by Honorable Savatore Garang Mabiordit, Minister of Finance & Planning, para. 28. 983 Presentation of Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, Africa Oil & Power Conference, Juba, November 2018; Al Jazeera, “South Sudan holds oil conference to boost industry”, 21 November 2018. 984 Al Jazeera, “South Sudan holds oil conference to boost industry”, 21 November 2018. 985 Seik, Edris H. Kebret, Haile and Abdi, Ali Issa (2017), “The State of the Political Instability and Its Impact on Trade in South Sudan: A Critical Assessment”, Unpublished paper by the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, pp. 19-21. 986 Michael Ross, “The Natural Resource Curse: How Wealth can Make You Poor”, in: Ian Bannon and Paul Collier (Eds), Natural Resources and Violent Conflict, Options and Actions, The World Bank, 2003. 127