A/HRC/42/44 7. Being a migrant, a refugee, a displaced person or an asylum seeker appears to particularly heighten the risk of slavery. 8 Research has begun to explore the factors that influence this risk, including smugglers’ decisions, the profitability of exploitation 9 and debt traps.10 There is a growing recognition of the links between migrant labour recruitment practices and exploitation 11 and how policy and regulatory regimes governing migration may impact vulnerability to slavery. 12 Vulnerabilities at the individual level interact with risk factors at the community and national levels. Though constrained by limited data and the hidden nature of the crime, projections have identified several possibly relevant country-level risk factors, including corruption, weak rule of law and human rights protections, inequality levels and the presence of armed conflict. 13 8. There is growing evidence that slavery is tied to broader public health costs, productivity losses, negative environmental externalities and lost income. 14 Efforts to address the drivers of slavery and achieve Sustainable Development Goal 8 (decent work) are thus likely to relate to efforts to achieve other Sustainable Development Goals, including those relating to education, gender equality, social inequality, sustainable consumption, and peaceful, just and inclusive societies. B. How and why slavery may change in the future The future of work 9. Vulnerability to slavery is closely related to labour market regulation and dynamics. The unemployed and those participating in part-time employment are at higher risk of slavery.15 Trends in the future of work and in social protection schemes are thus highly relevant to any understanding of how slavery may change. 16 10. Informality, including casualization, and other forms of precariousness in employment are risk factors for vulnerability to slavery. The informal sector is characterized by low productivity and low-skilled jobs without stable sources of income.17 Today, more than 60 per cent of the world’s employed population, including 56 per cent in G20 economies, are in informal employment.18 In developing countries, informality 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 4 IOM, Addressing Human Trafficking and Exploitation in Times of Crisis: Evidence and Recommendations for Further Action to Protect Vulnerable and Mobile Populations (Geneva, 2015), p. 31; and Walk Free submission, p. 2. Yuji Tamura, “Migrant smuggling”, Warwick Economics Research Paper Series 791, 2007. On the market for illegal migrants with debt/labour contracts, see Guido Friebel and Sergei Guriev, “Smuggling humans: a theory of debt-financed migration”, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 4, No. 6 (December 2006). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), The Role of Recruitment Fees and Abusive and Fraudulent Recruitment Practices of Recruitment Agencies in Trafficking in Persons (Vienna, 2015); and Freedom Fund and Verité, An Exploratory Study on the Role of Corruption in International Labour Migration (2016). International Centre for Migration Policy Development submission. Diego-Rossel and Larsen, “Modelling the risk of modern slavery”; Jacqueline Joudo Larsen and Davina Durgana, “Measuring vulnerability and estimating prevalence of modern slavery”, Chance, vol. 30, Issue 3, Special Issue on Modern Slavery (2017); ILO, Profits and Poverty: The Economics of Forced Labour (Geneva, 2017); and Rights Lab submission, p. 1. Rights Lab submission, pp. 1–2; Maat for Peace, Development and Human Rights submission, p. 5. Diego-Rossel and Larsen, “Modelling the risk of modern slavery”. See ILO, Inception Report for the Global Commission on the Future of Work (Geneva, 2017); Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), “Future of work and skills”, paper presented at the second meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) Employment Working Group (Hamburg, Germany, 15–17 February 2017); World Economic Forum, “Industry profile: basic and infrastructure”, available at http://reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2016/basic and infrastructure/; and World Bank, World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work (Washington, D.C., 2019). World Bank, World Development Report 2019. ILO, “Informality and non-standard forms of employment”, paper prepared for the G20 Employment Working Group (Buenos Aires, 20–22 February 2018).