A/HRC/43/44 B. Climate change and natural disasters 52. The climate crisis is an existential threat to human survival, a key driver of hunger and malnutrition, and a violation of all human rights. The Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights has suggested that we are headed towards a “climate apartheid scenario in which the wealthy pay to escape overheating, hunger and conflict, while the rest of the world is left to suffer” (A/HRC/41/39, para. 51). Over the past half century, climate change has exacerbated global inequality between countries by 25 per cent, with vulnerable populations who contribute the least to climate change, suffering the most.51 Failure to act could push over 3 billion people into extreme poverty and hunger, with a possible increase in the total population at risk of hunger rising to 20 per cent by 2050.52 53. The three post-2015 agendas for action, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Paris Agreement, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, should provide a foundation for sustainable, low-carbon and resilient development in a changing climate. Unfortunately, most State responses to the climate crises are either non-existent or ineffective. Existing commitments to the Paris Agreement will not prevent global temperatures rising less than 3°C. 53 If global temperatures keep rising to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, an additional 189 million people could become food-insecure.54 54. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather forcibly displaced more than 20 million people in 201755 and severely endangered people’s livelihoods, particularly those who rely on the fishing and the agricultural sector for income and subsistence (A/HRC/37/61 para. 18). The Special Rapporteur observed these impacts during her visits to Indonesia, the Philippines, Viet Nam, Zambia and Zimbabwe. At the time of writing the present report, massive wildfires were raging in Australia, devastating the environment and threatening the lives and food security of its population. 55. Children are particularly vulnerable. UNICEF appropriately refers to the climate crisis as a child rights crisis. More than 500 million children live in areas which are at extremely high risk of flooding owing to severe weather events, while an estimated 160 million children live in areas experiencing high levels of drought. By 2040, an estimated 1 in 4 children will live in areas of extreme water stress.56 These trends are contrary to the principle of intergenerational equity set forth in the Paris Agreement and the sustainability pillar of the right to food. New developments 56. Since the start of the Special Rapporteur’s mandate, the impact of climate change on global food systems have become more widely believed by the general public. Media coverage and civil society organizations have called for drastic changes to agricultural production and consumption habits, recognizing that food systems are a considerable source of greenhouse gas emissions. If the business-as-usual scenario continues, agriculture will generate about 70 per cent of human-generated emissions. 57 In its special report on climate change and land, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recognized that 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 See Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke, “Global warming has increased global economic inequality”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, vol. 116, No. 20. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability”, summary for policymakers of the contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Panel. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report, Global Warming of 1.5°C (2019). WFP, “What a 2°C and 4°C warmer world could mean for global food insecurity: based on research on extreme climate projections for food security” (2016). Tim McDonnell, “The refugees the world barely pays attention to”, National Public Radio (20 June 2018), available at www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/06/20/621782275/the-refugees-that-theworld-barely-pays-attention-to. See UNICEF press release (6 Dec. 2019), available at www.unicef.org/press-releases/fact-sheetclimate-crisis-child-rights-crisis. Tim Searchinger and others, Creating a Sustainable Food Future: a Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050 (Washington, D.C., World Resources Institute, 2019). 13