A/HRC/38/21 scope of climate change-related displacement.6 Notably, the above figure does not account for those who moved in whole or in part owing to the slow-onset adverse effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, salinization of groundwater resources, changing precipitation patterns and desertification. The actual number of persons whose decisions to move were affected by climate change is likely to be higher. In its Fifth Assessment Report, 7 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that climate change would increase future levels of displacement and that populations lacking the resources for planned migration experienced higher exposure to extreme weather events, in particular in developing countries with low incomes. 7. As the Human Rights Council mentions in its resolution 35/20, the adverse effects of climate change have a range of implications for the effective enjoyment of human rights, including the rights to life, food, health, housing, self-determination, water and sanitation, and development. The negative impacts of climate change on health and children have been the subject of two previous reports to the Council by OHCHR.8 Those impacts can drive human mobility, and when people move out of necessity rather than free choice, they may face a heightened risk of human rights violations. 9 A. Relationship between climate change and human mobility 8. The relationship between climate change and human mobility is complex. According to the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, people may move to escape armed conflict, poverty, food insecurity, persecution, terrorism, human rights violations and abuses, the adverse effects of climate change, natural disasters (some of which may be linked to climate change), other environmental factors and for a combination of those reasons. 9. Given that, establishing clear causality between the adverse effects of climate change and human movement can be difficult. Decisions to move, even when the adverse effects of climate change are the predominant driver, can be compounded by violations of economic, social, cultural, civil and political rights, some of which may themselves be caused or exacerbated by climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by amplifying well-documented drivers of conflict, such as poverty and economic shocks, climate change can also indirectly increase the risk of violent conflict.10 Those complexities pose substantial challenges for quantitative research and can inhibit understanding of the climate change/human mobility nexus, as well as the potential effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation on human mobility. 10. Nevertheless, it is clear that climate change substantially contributes to human rights harms and related human movement. 11 The adverse effects of climate change have a range of implications for the effective enjoyment of human rights. For example, in 2008, it was estimated that roughly half of the world’s hungry people relied on degraded lands that will suffer largely negative effects from climate change for their subsistence. 12 It is also estimated that climate change will have a major impact on the people living without access 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 It is important to note that the majority of climate change-related movement, at least at first, is likely to be internal. See F. Gemenne, “Migration doesn’t have to be a failure to adapt” in Climate Adaptation Futures (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), p. 238; and K. Warner and T. Afifi, “Enhancing Adaptation Options and Managing Human Mobility: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, Social Research: An International Quarterly, vol. 81, No. 2 (2014) p. 307. Available at www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf. A/HRC/32/23 and A/HRC/35/13. See A/HRC/37/34, paras 12–14. See Fifth Assessment Report (footnote 7 above). Some international human rights mechanisms have recognized that climate change-related disasters threaten the enjoyment of human rights and are a push factor in women’s migration. See, for example, Committee for the Elimination of Discrimination against Women general recommendation No. 37 (2018) on gender-related dimensions of disaster risk reduction in the context of climate change, para. 74. See A/HRC/7/5, para. 51.