A/HRC/22/33 human rights implications. Some members of the armed groups are from the local population and have the support of certain local public figures. The ethnic dimension, including the fact that one sector of the population and members of the military are confusing civilians from Tamashek and Arab groups with armed groups, and the distress of the Malian army at the setback it suffered point to the risk of reprisals against the civilian population in the event of a military intervention. The fact that many militias are driven by revenge, and, sometimes, a sense of identity is also a matter of concern. The fragile state of the institutions described in this report makes the situation even more precarious. 68. On the humanitarian front, specialized staff fear a massive flux of displaced persons and refugees, currently estimated at more than 300,000 persons, in the event of a military intervention. Such a scenario would put considerable pressure on the national humanitarian system, as well as on other States in the region and humanitarian agencies to absorb the additional mass of displaced persons and refugees. The situation also risks creating some instability in the subregion. 69. Finally, it should be noted that increasing ethnic tensions in Mali foster a climate that is not favourable to national unity. If nothing is done about it and if these tensions are, in addition, manipulated for political purposes, Mali is likely to experience violence on an unprecedented scale. 70. In view of the foregoing, the High Commissioner makes the following recommendations: Recommendations to the Government of Mali: (a) Ensure that all perpetrators of human rights violations committed during the crisis are brought to justice; (b) Ensure that the rights of all Malians are observed, including the prompt organization of fair trials or release of those who are unlawfully detained; (c) Ensure that all security forces receive training on the principles of international law, human rights law and humanitarian law; (d) Put in place a process of inclusive dialogue for the establishment of a transitional justice mechanism covering the violations committed in connection with the 2012 crisis and during previous waves of violence; (e) Organize campaigns to raise awareness of human rights, in particular against: (i) ethnic and religious intolerance, (ii) exploitation and abuse of and violence against children and women; (f) As part of the reform of the security sector, adopt measures: (i) to conduct a certification process for the defence and security forces; (ii) to establish, with the support of the United Nations system, disarmament, demobilization and community reintegration programmes; (iii) to prohibit the operations of the militias; (g) Enhance the participation of women and young people in mediation and negotiation processes, and in decision-making, as well as in the global humanitarian response and the electoral process. Recommendations to the international community: (a) Strengthen the capacity of the United Nations system in Mali in the following areas: (i) the prevention, monitoring and follow-up of human rights violations; (ii) national capacity-building for the protection of human rights, including support for the National Human Rights Commission, the judiciary and the 18 GE.13-10067