A/HRC/42/49 B. Individual responsibility 64. The Commission has continued drawing up its list of alleged perpetrators of crimes against humanity, distinguishing between direct responsibility and command responsibility, whether civilian or military. This list is kept confidential to protect sources and respect the right to the presumption of innocence of the alleged perpetrators, but the Commission reserves the right to disclose it. IV. Risk factors A. Overview 65. In accordance with the principles of prevention and early warning promoted by the United Nations, the Commission decided that it was important to determine whether there were any particular risk factors linked to the 2020 elections that could have an impact on the human rights situation. To that end, it used the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes developed by the Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect.30 Risk factors are conditions that create an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes or point to their possible occurrence. Some are structural, whereas others are related to dynamic circumstances. The objective indicators included in the Framework are different manifestations of each risk factor and therefore assist in determining the degree to which an individual risk factor is present. Observing the situation and warning of the existence of risk factors – without determining the likelihood of atrocity crimes occurring – are necessary steps, as the warning can itself help ward off or mitigate the risks of a deterioration of the human rights situation. The Commission has sought to identify the indicators that would help it determine what risk factors are present in Burundi. B. Significant developments 1. Failure to resolve the 2015 political crisis 66. The crisis of 2015, which was primarily political, continues to affect Burundi society. The inclusive inter-Burundi dialogue is at an impasse, as the Government of Burundi has rejected the process and the need for it. The people are continuing to fall further into poverty, and the many refugees from Burundi are still without real prospects. The Burundian authorities refuse to engage in dialogue to resolve this profound political crisis and view any attempt by the international community to resolve it or to address human rights violations and international crimes as violations of national sovereignty and attempts to destabilize the country. Impunity prevails, and victims remain without access to remedies. 2. 2020 elections 67. The existence of democratic space is a key indicator for the holding of fair, free and credible elections. Democratic space in Burundi has shrunk steadily since 2015, as national human rights mechanisms are neither independent nor effective. The Government is increasing its control over NGOs, and with the National Communication Council practising censorship, freedom of the press has become a fiction. 68. There is no real multiparty system in Burundi. Most parties have been infiltrated and divided so that only the wings loyal to the Government have official approval. The political arena has been cordoned off by CNDD-FDD. The hopes raised by the approval of the Congrès national pour la liberté in February 2019 were quickly dashed. Its members are harassed or even persecuted, and the party’s activities are restricted, controlled or banned, highlighting the political intolerance prevailing in Burundi. This situation suggests that the 30 GE.19-13419 A/70/741-S/2016/71. 13