A/HRC/40/70 III. Political and military developments 12. Pro-government forces reasserted their control over vast swathes of the Syrian Arab Republic during the first half of 2018; in turn, international political negotiations continued to stall during the latter half of the year. After weeks of heavy fighting, armed groups in the south-west reached an agreement in early July with government forces to stay hostilities and evacuate from Dar’a Governorate (A/HRC/39/65, para. 12). Pro-government forces subsequently regrouped and widened offensives to areas situated between Dar’a and Qunaytirah, regaining full control over territories adjacent to the Golan Heights. In the north-west, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and government forces reached a deal on 19 July to evacuate up to 7,000 civilians remaining in the predominantly Shia towns of Fu’ah and Kafraya (Idlib).7 13. In the south, ISIL claimed responsibility for a series of attacks in Suwayda’ Governorate on 25 July, which killed and injured hundreds of Druze civilians. Consequently, pro-government forces launched a renewed offensive to oust ISIL terrorists from the region. The success of those battles and evacuations allowed pro-government forces to consolidate control in the south and pivot their attention north-west, as they began regrouping near the last opposition stronghold of Idlib. 14. Following the regrouping, pro-government forces intensified air strikes in Idlib, northern Hama and western Aleppo Governorates, after which Turkey and the Russian Federation began negotiations to avert a full-scale military assault. An agreement between the Presidents of the Russian Federation and Turkey was reached on 17 September to create a demilitarized buffer zone across Idlib, western Aleppo and northern Hama. The agreement led to a significant decrease in tensions and averted a full-scale military operation. 15. Turkey and the Russian Federation announced that the demilitarized zone would be set up in three phases. The first phase would come into effect by mid-October and create a 15-to-20 kilometre demilitarized zone; second, armed groups would remove heavy weapons from the zone and withdraw from civilian areas; and, third, government institutions would resume work in Idlib. To guarantee full implementation, Turkey presented plans to increase troop deployments and to conduct joint patrols alongside Russian military police. Armed groups, including those under the umbrella of the National Front for Liberation (NFL),8 initially declared they would neither surrender weapons nor concede territory, while key extremist groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham terrorists, rejected the deal outright. 16. The reluctance of some armed actors notwithstanding, Turkey facilitated the gradual withdrawal of heavy weapons from the proposed area by early October and declared that the demilitarized zone had been established. 9 Despite the establishment of the zone, hostilities in the north-west between pro-government forces and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham flared up in November. The situation in the east simultaneously deteriorated: after nearly two weeks of heavy fighting, SDF supported by the United States-led coalition succeeded on 23 October in capturing Susah town, located south of Hajin in Dayr al-Zawr, from ISIL. In Ayn al-Arab (Aleppo), the Turkish army shelled positions of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). As a result, SDF temporarily suspended their offensive against ISIL in the eastern part of the country. 7 8 9 Residents from the two towns were subsequently displaced to government-held areas in Aleppo in exchange for the release of some 1,500 detainees in State custody. The Commission has previously documented the forced displacement of civilians by parties undertaking similar “evacuation agreements” from eastern Aleppo city (A/HRC/34/64, para. 93), Madaya (Rif Dimashq) and Barza, Tishreen and Qabun (eastern Damascus) (A/HRC/36/55, para. 35); see also, generally, Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, “Sieges as a weapon of war: encircle, starve, surrender, evacuate” (29 May 2018). NFL includes the armed groups Ahrar al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zanki, Faylaq al-Sham, Jaish al-Ahrar and Free Syrian Army affiliates. Its estimated military strength is 40,000 to 45,000 fighters. The Russian Federation confirmed that over 1,000 armed group fighters and around 100 units of military equipment had been withdrawn. 5