A/HRC/9/23 page 8 world grows its food will have to change radically to better serve the poor and hungry if the world is to cope with a growing population and climate change while avoiding social breakdown and environmental collapse”.10 10. The search for such sustainable solutions may be more difficult than reliance on technological solutions devised elsewhere, and it may be less attractive to private interests. But these recommendations are the result of a long process of scientific research and consultation, analogous to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In devising solutions to improve the productivity of agriculture, we should first and foremost use the scientific expertise already available on the social and environmental impact of technology-led attempts at boosting production. 11. A second conclusion from the analysis (see annex I9 is that we should resist the temptation of seeking answers by simply reversing the clock: by reverting to a ‘normal’ situation, in which the impoverished countryside feeds the comparatively wealthier inhabitants of the city, and in which cheap food is made available on international markets as compensation for the destruction of the livelihood of farmers in many developing countries. Instead, we need to build a system which ensures a sufficient degree of resilience in the face of the increasing volatility of international markets of agricultural primary commodities, and which maintains such volatility within acceptable margins. According to the Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017 by FAO and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), prices of primary agricultural commodities will remain at higher average levels over the medium term than during the period 1998-2007, but they will then resume their decline in real terms, though at a lesser pace than previously. These forecasts are, however, made under rather heroic assumptions.11 The potential impact of climate change and water shortages were not factored in, although we know the threat that they represent for agriculture, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Asia and South Asia, where climate change will affect rain, increase the frequency of droughts, raise average temperatures, and threaten the availability of fresh water for farming. In addition, policy 10 The report found that technological innovations in agriculture have generally favoured large-scale producers, and their costs have been borne by small scale producers, their communities and the environment. The IAASTD report strongly supported the potential of small-scale producers in agricultural development, pointing to the need for dedicated support for smallholders if this potential is to be achieved, and to the need to avoid dependency on expensive inputs such as inorganic fertilizers whose prices are closely aligned with those of oil, or on patented seeds. In order to reduce vulnerability in the food system, it recommended relying on locally-based knowledge, innovations, policies and investments. Participatory Plant Breeding and Farmer-Researcher groups - not exogenous technologies - were specifically highlighted as models for successful technological development. The IAASTD identified several areas ripe for investment and public research, among them, low-input and organic systems, biological substitutes for agrochemicals, site-specific easily adaptable cultivars, local seed systems, and reducing the dependency of agriculture on fossil fuels. 11 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017, 29 May 2008, at 14 and 28.