A/HRC/42/44 causal pathways involved are complex and may not be linear: they may be influenced by national- and international-level policy choices.38 Other emerging trends 18. New technologies are leading to new forms of exploitation, such as forcing children to participate in online sexual exploitation. Other new forms of slavery may also be emerging. For-profit “orphanages” risk becoming gateways into child slavery. Children may be trafficked into exploitation in these institutions or trafficked from the institutions into exploitation in other settings, and those who have been through such institutions may be more vulnerable to slavery subsequently. And the anticipated rise of “volunteer tourism” in foreign orphanages may risk stoking demand for such trafficked children. 39 19. There are also disturbing signs suggesting that a resurgence of enslavement in armed conflict contexts, not only as a method of recruitment but increasingly also as an open tactic of ideological subjugation and conflict financing. The growing trend towards fragmentation of armed conflict suggests a weakening of the established inter-State norms of warfare, including the strong taboo against enslavement. From the Syrian Arab Republic to Libya to Nigeria, there are recent signs that enslavement is transforming from incidental to also being instrumental to conflict. 40 Most commonly reported forms of trafficking for the purpose of exploitation in situations of armed conflict are sexual slavery of women and children and their abduction for forced marriage; recruitment of children into armed groups; and forced labour in different sectors such as agriculture, the domestic sector and extractive industries. The latter may be used to finance operations of armed groups or for personal profit.41 20. Conflict-induced displacement is at historic highs, further limiting people’s access to decent work, disrupting social networks and increasing their vulnerability to debt bondage, forced labour, commercial sexual exploitation, child labour and servile forms of marriage as a means of survival and coping. 42 Additionally, the increasing targeting and use of schools for military purposes greatly heightens children’s vulnerability to contemporary forms of slavery, in particular child labour and child recruitment. 43 21. Finally, there will be a heightened risk of forced and servile marriage and sexual slavery in societies where there is a persistent gender imbalance, a phenomenon often resulting from the practice of sex-selective abortion. 44 Countries with disproportionate gender ratios and a growing young, male population will generate an increased demand for trafficking of women and girls into servile forms of marriage and into commercial sexual exploitation, including from other countries in their region. 45 Additionally, long-term 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Rights Lab and Tech Against Trafficking submissions. See also R.L. Malinowski and others, Natural Disaster, Human Trafficking and Displacement in Kenya (Awareness Against Human Trafficking, 2017). Lumos Foundation submission; see also Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia, Hidden in Plain Sight: An Inquiry into Establishing a Modern Slavery Act in Australia (Canberra, 2017), sect. 8. Thomas S. Szayna and others, Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections (Santa Monica, California, Rand Corporation, 2017); and report of the Special Rapporteur on trafficking in persons, especially women and girls (A/73/171). UNODC, Global Report on Trafficking in Persons (United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.19.IV.2). Freedom Fund submission, Q4; Freedom Fund, “Struggling to survive: slavery and exploitation of Syrian refugees in Lebanon”, 2016; and W.C. Robinson and others, “Estimating trafficking of Myanmar women for forced marriage and childbearing in China”, Johns Hopkins University and Kachin Women’s Association Thailand, 2018. See also James Cockayne and Julie Oppermann, “Can we sustain peace by fighting human trafficking in conflict? Lessons from Libya”, United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, 10 November 2017. UNODC, Countering Trafficking in Persons in Conflict Situations: Thematic Paper (Vienna, 2018). James Cockayne and Amanda Roth, “Crooked States: how organized crime and corruption will impact governance in 2050 and what States can – and should – do about it now”, United Nations University Report, October 2017. United Nations Action for Cooperation against Trafficking in Persons, Human Trafficking Vulnerabilities in Asia: A Study on Forced Marriage between Cambodia and China (Bangkok, 2016). 7