A/HRC/37/72 country, shopkeepers were mostly male. Due to the high number of casualties, serious cases were transferred from Atarib hospital to Bab al-Hawa hospital (Idlib). Among the approximately 150 injured were first-responders, including an ambulance driver, who was seriously injured by an airstrike while responding to the first wave of strikes on the police station. The driver died in hospital some days later, his ambulance having been destroyed in the attack. Rescue efforts continued over subsequent days. In some instances, rescuers were unable to identify the deceased because they were internally displaced persons who had moved to Atarib in recent months, including former residents of eastern Aleppo city. In other cases, identification was not possible because only body parts were retrieved. 25. While some interviewees said they only saw one aircraft — with fixed-wings at the back — others recalled seeing a second aircraft they believed to be a reconnaissance aircraft because it circled above the location while the other conducted the strikes. All information available indicates that a Russian fixed-wing aircraft that took off from Humaymim airbase conducted the strikes. Early warning observers monitored the take-off of a fixed-wing aircraft, whose pilots communicated in Russian, from Humaymim airbase at 1:37 p.m. and tracked the aircraft going south and then to the northeast all the way to Atarib where it arrived at 2:07 p.m. No Syrian aircraft were observed in the area in the two hours preceding the airstrikes. 26. As to potential military objectives, many interviewees, including shop owners and local residents, said that due to efforts by the local council, there were no armed groups present in Atarib. Others, however, claimed that — from 9 November onwards — there was on-going infighting between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Nour al-Din al-Zinki in western Aleppo governorate countryside, including in Atarib, Abzemo, and Orum al-Kubra. On 11 November, civilians took to the streets of Orum al-Kubra to protest against the confrontations between the two groups. The protest was violently repressed and three children were shot dead. 27. Some interviewees claimed that there was on-going infighting between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Nour al-Din al-Zinki in western Aleppo governorate. The Commission received conflicting information about a possible target, including unconfirmed reports of a meeting between armed groups and tribal elders. Analysis of the site and other information indicate that a specific location was targeted. 28. Multiple airstrikes in Atarib employed at least two types of aerial bombs — blast weapons and earth penetrators. Images and videos from the site show evidence of at least six impacts. Widespread damage is consistent with blast weapons such as the unguided OFAB-500 causing devastating surface damage that destroyed a large part of the market area. Additionally, at least one bomb carrying multiple smaller earth penetrating munitions caused several impacts collapsing multiple buildings. One entry hole was found containing an unexploded bomblet. Evidence at the scene and video evidence is consistent with a BeTAB-500 unguided “bunker buster” carrying 12 rocket-assisted penetrators. The Russian Air Force has used the BeTAB throughout Aleppo province. The impact points show that unguided bombs roughly fell in a line with a 250 m dispersion which suggests that the aircraft lined up on the target dropping weapons into an area that formed a target box rather than conducting a precision strike against the point target. 29. The likely use of unguided weapons in a densely populated area such as the one hit in Atarib raises the issue of how accurate the weapons were. Circular Error Probable (CEP) is the measure of precision for a guided bomb. It means that 50 per cent of bombs fall within a circle the size of the CEP and 50 per cent outside of it — so a weapon with a 10 m CEP will fall within 10 m half the time and farther than 10 m half the time. When precision weapons miss they usually have close misses. In contrast, unguided bombs do not measure accuracy with CEP. Their accuracy varies greatly depending on a number of factors including aircraft, altitude, speed, heading, training of the pilot, and wind. 30. Unguided bomb accuracy is not officially measured in CEP but military studies have produced estimates of their accuracy using CEP as a rule of thumb. Using visual targeting, CEP is estimated as 122 m at an altitude of 3000 m. As the altitude increases, the accuracy of unguided bombs diminishes greatly. Using an advanced targeting computer, Russian sources estimate that aircraft are able to reliably attain a 25 m CEP with unguided bombs. 36

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