A/HRC/45/32 92. Risk factor 4 is the existence of motives, aims or other motivating factors justifying the use of violence against specific groups. The existence of economic interests linked to the preservation of power, which is the key to control over the distribution of the country’s resources, is an important element. The authorities must fight corruption and misappropriation of funds more effectively, including at the highest level of the State, to mitigate this risk factor. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission should adopt a more inclusive approach in its work and integrate the other dimensions of transitional justice into its activities in order to reduce the risk that grievances from the past and the desire for revenge might be used for political purposes. 93 Risk factor 5, which relates to the ability of potential perpetrators to commit criminal atrocities, cannot be mitigated as long as the Imbonerakure remain everywhere to be seen in the public sphere and substitute themselves for the law enforcement and security forces, including in joint security committees. 94. The lack of mitigating factors (risk factor 6) such as a strong, organized and representative national civil society and free, diverse and independent media remains a serious concern. President Ndayishimiye’s remarks on this subject during his inaugural address were not reassuring. The possibility of opening a democratic space, which can take place immediately, is a key indicator of the direction that the new Government will take. A resumption of cooperation with the entire United Nations system, including the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, but also with international nongovernmental organizations working on human rights, would be another important mitigating factor. 95. Risk factor 7, which relates to a climate and circumstances conducive to violence and human rights violations, including the politically motivated exploitation of identity, past events or motives to resort to violence, worsened with the elections of 2020. Provocative statements and incitement to hatred aimed at political opponents, sometimes with an ethnic dimension, increased. The authorities should take measures to effectively combat violations of the fundamental human rights of political opponents and acts of violence, including sexual violence, against women and children, and to punish the perpetrators of hate speech. 96. The main triggering factor (risk factor 8), which was the various 2020 elections, has disappeared. However, the new authorities in Burundi still perceive the measures taken by the international community as a threat to the State’s sovereignty. In the long term, the allegations of massive fraud during the elections of 20 May 2020 are also likely to weigh on the legitimacy of the people who have just come to power. It remains to be seen whether attacks on the life, physical integrity, liberty and security of members of the opposition parties perpetrated during the electoral process will continue or will stop in the coming months. 97. The continued presence of all these risk factors provides an objective basis with which to grasp the reality of the human rights situation in Burundi. Just as the international community’s vigilance helped to limit the level of violence during the electoral process, it is crucial in the transitional period for the human rights situation during the first months of the new Government to be followed with the utmost attention by the international community. The international community must not miss this opportunity to call for specific measures along these lines. VI. Conclusions and recommendations 98. The Commission has reasonable grounds to believe that serious human rights violations – some of which may constitute crimes against humanity – have been committed since May 2019, mainly in the context of the 2020 electoral process. In particular, it has documented cases of violations of the right to life, numerous cases of arbitrary arrest and detention, torture and other ill-treatment, cases of rape and sexual violence and violations of key civil liberties. The main perpetrators have been the Imbonerakure, local administrative officials, police officers and agents of the National Intelligence Service. They have continued to enjoy nearly total impunity. GE.20-10689 17