A/HRC/45/28 “smart” lending practices with a view to promoting development and human rights, for the benefit not only of bank and speculators, but billions of human beings (ibid., para. 87). 2. Warning against retrogressive measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic 44. The Independent Expert, in light of the above unequivocal assessment of retrogressive measures, strongly cautions against the imposition of retrogressive measures, attached to loan conditionalities, which is likely to undermine the enjoyment of economic, social and cultural rights in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time of finalizing the present report, over 15 million people had been infected and over 620,000 people had died.42 45. The economic fallout of the current pandemic is foreseen to be far greater than the 2008 global financial crisis, which resulted in a sharp increase in unemployment and poverty and further inequalities, affecting the realization of economic, social and cultural rights. National and international economic and financial systems will be acutely affected and a deep global recession most likely inevitable. IMF predicts an abysmal $12 trillion shortfall in the global economy.43 46. As the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights stressed in a statement in April 2020, all States parties should, as a matter of urgency, adopt special, targeted measures to protect and mitigate the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable groups such as older persons, persons with disabilities, refugees and conflict-affected populations, as well as communities and groups subject to structural discrimination and disadvantage (E/C.12/2020/1, para. 15). 47. Furthermore, States must make every effort to mobilize the necessary resources to combat COVID-19 in the most equitable manner, in order to avoid imposing a further economic burden on these marginalized groups, and allocation of resources should prioritize the special needs of these groups (ibid., para. 14). In this regard, the Special Rapporteur on the right to development, endorsed by the Independent Expert and other special procedure mandate holders, pointed out the importance of States and international actors gathering adequate data on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis – disaggregated at least by gender, age, disability, income, race and ethnicity – in order to identify those who have been left behind and thus inform specifically targeted policies, with a view to ultimately upholding the commitment under the 2030 Agenda to leave no one behind.44 48. The Independent Expert believes that it is crucial that economic reforms attached to international loans and introduced after the emergency phase to address the pandemic’s large-scale and most likely long-lasting human rights impact, including austerity measures, be carefully assessed against human rights standards in order to avoid potential retrogressive measures and ensure that the maximum available resources are indeed devoted to the realization of economic, social and cultural rights. Such human rights impact assessments should be undertaken by both lending and borrowing States (E/C.12/2016/1, para. 11), but similarly by international financial institutions prior to granting loans with conditionalities (A/HRC/42/38, para. 131). In this regard, the Independent Expert wishes to refer to the guiding principles on human rights impact assessment of economic reforms, designed by the Independent Expert on foreign debt, which set out the human rights principles and standards that apply to States, international financial institutions and creditors when designing, formulating or proposing economic reforms (A/HRC/40/57, principles 14 and 15). 42 43 44 12 Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, COVID-19 Dashboard. Available at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e 9ecf6 (accessed on 27 July 2020). Larry Elliott, “Global economy will take $12tn hit from coronavirus, says IMF”, Guardian, 24 June 2020. OHCHR, “‘Leave no one behind’ – Don’t forget your commitments in your response to the COVID19 crises, UN expert urges States”, 9 April 2020.