A/HRC/42/49 War Crimes and Other Crimes against Humanity does not serve as an independent mechanism of that sort (risk factor 6 (k)). 87. Risk factor 7 refers to enabling circumstances or preparatory actions, whether sudden or gradual, that provide an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes or suggest that they may occur. The main indicators of this risk in Burundi are: the interference with vital State institutions, or measures that result in changes to their composition or balance of power, as is the case with the introduction of ethnic quotas (risk factor 7 (b)); the strengthening of the security apparatus or its reorganization or mobilization (risk factor 7 (c)); the expulsion or refusal to allow the presence of NGOs, international organizations, media or other relevant actors, or the imposition of severe restrictions on their services and movements (risk factor 7 (g)); the increase in the number of violations of the right to life, physical integrity, liberty or security of any person considered a political opponent since the onset of the 2015 crisis (risk factor 7 (h)); the increase in the number of serious acts of violence against women and children, or the creation of conditions that facilitate acts of sexual violence against them, including as a tool of terror (risk factor 7 (i)); the increased politicization of identity, past events or motivations for violence (risk factor 7 (m)); the increase in inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or incitement to hatred targeting anyone considered a political opponent since the onset of the 2015 political crisis (risk factor 7 (n)). 88. Triggering factors (risk factor 8) are also present, as evidenced by the following indicators: measures taken by the international community are perceived by the Burundian authorities as threats to State sovereignty (risk factor 8 (c)); there was an abrupt or irregular transfer of power in 2015 (risk factor 8 (d)); attacks on the life, physical integrity, liberty or security of leaders, prominent individuals or members of opposition groups have been committed (risk factor 8 (e)); there is hate propaganda targeting political opponents (risk factor 8 (g)); presidential, parliamentary and local elections are scheduled for 2020 (risk factor 8 (h)); the commemoration, along ethnic lines, of past crimes or of traumatic or historical incidents could exacerbate tensions between groups (risk factor 8 (k)); acts related to the process for determining accountability for past atrocities could be perceived as unfair (risk factor 8 (l)). 89. The eight common risk factors identified in the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes are clearly present in Burundi, and there is a significant number of indicators for each of them.35 Although the presence of those risk factors does not make it possible to draw conclusions about the likelihood of atrocity crimes or when and in what way any such crimes will be committed, it gives the international community an objective basis for understanding the reality of the situation in Burundi and the possible risks facing the country. The identification of several risk factors means that developments in Burundi must be monitored very closely. V. Conclusions and recommendations 90. In the light of its investigations, the Commission concludes that serious human rights violations – including crimes against humanity – have continued to take place since May 2018, in particular violations of the right to life, arbitrary arrest and detention, torture and other forms of ill-treatment, sexual violence, and violations of economic and social rights, all in a general climate of impunity. Violations of civil liberties are also on the rise. 91. The Commission remains the only independent and objective mechanism that investigates, documents and informs the international community about human rights violations and abuses in Burundi. 35 GE.19-13419 The Commission is of the view that the risks gauged by other indicators are only partially present. Those indicators have thus not been mentioned in this report, but they have been examined in document A/HRC/42/CRP.2. 17