A/HRC/7/5 page 21 10 per cent by 2020.59 The United States has set targets to increase usage of biofuels for energy to 35 billion gallons per year. But these target objectives cannot be met by agricultural production in the industrialized countries. Therefore, the northern industrialized countries look to the production of the countries of the southern hemisphere to meet these needs. 55. Increasing the production of biofuels could bring positive benefits for climate change and for farmers in developing countries, including improving food security, if the benefits trickle down. However, it is unacceptable that increasing production of biofuels should lead to greater hunger. The greatest risk is that dependence on the agro-industrial model of production will fail to benefit poor peasant farmers and will generate violations of the right to food. 56. The well-regarded think-tank International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has estimated that prices will rise dramatically in the near future if the production of biofuels is increased, forecasting a rise of 20 per cent in the international price of maize between now and 2010, and 41 per cent by 2020.60 There are already reports that the global maize price has doubled over the past year.61 The prices of vegetable oil crops, especially soya and sunflower seeds, could increase by 26 per cent by 2010 and 76 per cent by 2020, while wheat prices could increase by 11 per cent and then by 30 per cent. In the poorest regions of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America, the price of manioc could rise by 33 per cent and by as much as 135 per cent by 2020.62 The consequences of such a rapid increase in food prices would be grave. IFPRI forecasts that the number of people suffering from undernourishment would increase by 16 million people for each percentage point increase in the real price of staple food. Thus, by 2025, 1.2 billion people would be suffering from hunger. 57. The shift to biofuel will have numerous other impacts on the right to food. A rapid increase in the price of food crops will intensify competition over land and other natural resources, including forest reserves. This will pit peasant farmers and indigenous communities of forest dwellers against massive agribusiness corporations and large investors who are already buying up large swathes of land or forcing peasants off their land. There could also be impacts upon employment and conditions of work. Although the increase in biofuel production could offer better employment, Brazil’s Landless Workers Movement has already protested the “slavery” conditions faced by workers on some of the country’s sugar cane plantations.63 Finally, there will also be impacts upon increasing prices and scarcity of water. The production of biofuels will require substantial amounts of water, diverting water away from the production of food crops. 59 Directive 2003/30/EC on promotion of the use of biofuels. 60 IFPRI, Bioenergy and Agriculture: Promises and Challenges, 2006. 61 D. Howden, “The fight for the world’s food”, The Independent, 23 June 2007. 62 IFPRI, op.cit. 2006. 63 IPS 05.06.2007, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=38051.