A/HRC/42/44 accounts for more than 90 per cent of work.19 Yet informal employment looks set to grow, not only due to automation but also due to the rise of digital platforms for own-account and piecework – the so-called “gig economy”.20 There is widespread evidence that workers in this type of work, at the end of highly integrated and volatile supply chains, are often vulnerable to exploitation. Rigid purchasing practices that rely excessively on short-term contracts, short production windows and unfair payment terms are examples of practices that push risk down the supply chain onto the most vulnerable individuals – a trend that may be further exacerbated by automation.21 11. If technological and social changes in the world of work are not human-centred and trends towards decent work deficits are not tackled,22 precariousness in the labour markets could increase, 23 and slavery risks will likely rise with it. Lower-skilled jobs will be susceptible to disruption by automation, resulting in displaced workers competing with other low-skill workers for a smaller number of jobs for lower wages. 24 Disruptions in labour markets will generate negative income shocks for many households, create negative perceptions of household income and fuel inequality, all thought to be key risk factors for slavery. 25 At the same time, new jobs will demand higher skill levels and educational attainment, requiring significant retraining and investments in education. 26 Demographic trends and migration 12. Limited access to jobs is also a main driver of migration, itself a major source of vulnerability to slavery. And both access to jobs and migration are also likely to be significantly affected by demographic trends: 85.6 per cent of the 25.6 million young people entering the labour force globally by 2030 will be in developing and emerging countries.27 The highest growth is estimated to take place in Africa, where 1.3 billion of the estimated 2.2 billion people to be added to the world population between 2017 and 2050 live, followed by Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. 13. Migration will likely continue to increase due to push factors such as conflict, income inequality, lack of economic opportunity and climate change, and pull factors such as demand for labour.28 Vulnerability of migrant workers to slavery increases as they are relegated to the informal economy in order to bypass legal routes for work, and are subjected to payment of recruitment fees and fraudulent practices of labour brokers. 29 This leads to low participation in society, poor health and lack of a safety net, all drivers of slavery. 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Ibid. Elizabeth Stuart, Emma Samman and Abigail Hunt, “Informal is the new normal: improving the lives of workers at risk of being left behind”, Overseas Development Institute Working Paper 530, January 2018; and Amolo Ng’weno and David Porteous “Let’s be real: the informal sector and the gig economy are the future, and the present, of work in Africa”, Center for Global Development, CGD Note, October 2018. Freedom Fund submission, Q4. ILO, Work for a Brighter Future: Global Commission on the Future of Work (Geneva, 2019). ILO, World Employment Social Outlook: Trends 2019 (Geneva, 2019). World Bank, World Development Report 2019; and Verisk Maplecroft, Human Rights Outlook 2018, p. 11. Diego-Rossel and Larsen, “Modelling the risk of modern slavery”. World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs Report 2018 (Geneva, 2018); and ILO, Inception Report. ILO, Global Employment Trends for Youth 2017: Paths to a Better Working Future (Geneva, 2017); and ILO, Inception Report. Ethical Trading Initiative submission, Q4; ILO, “Addressing the situation and aspirations of youth”, Issue Brief No. 2, prepared for the second meeting of the Global Commission on the Future of Work (Geneva, 15–17 February 2018); and ILO, Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers: Results and Methodology, 2nd edition (Geneva, 2015). Genevieve LeBaron and others, Confronting Root Causes of Forced Labour: Forced Labour in Global Supply Chains (openDemocracy and Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, 2018); and Nicola Phillips, Genevieve LeBaron and Sara Wallin, Mapping and Measuring the Effectiveness of Labour-Related Disclosure Requirements for Global Supply Chains, Research Department Working Paper No. 32 (ILO, 2018). 5