A/HRC/37/72
country, shopkeepers were mostly male. Due to the high number of casualties, serious cases
were transferred from Atarib hospital to Bab al-Hawa hospital (Idlib). Among the
approximately 150 injured were first-responders, including an ambulance driver, who was
seriously injured by an airstrike while responding to the first wave of strikes on the police
station. The driver died in hospital some days later, his ambulance having been destroyed in
the attack. Rescue efforts continued over subsequent days. In some instances, rescuers were
unable to identify the deceased because they were internally displaced persons who had
moved to Atarib in recent months, including former residents of eastern Aleppo city. In
other cases, identification was not possible because only body parts were retrieved.
25.
While some interviewees said they only saw one aircraft — with fixed-wings at the
back — others recalled seeing a second aircraft they believed to be a reconnaissance
aircraft because it circled above the location while the other conducted the strikes. All
information available indicates that a Russian fixed-wing aircraft that took off from
Humaymim airbase conducted the strikes. Early warning observers monitored the take-off
of a fixed-wing aircraft, whose pilots communicated in Russian, from Humaymim airbase
at 1:37 p.m. and tracked the aircraft going south and then to the northeast all the way to
Atarib where it arrived at 2:07 p.m. No Syrian aircraft were observed in the area in the two
hours preceding the airstrikes.
26.
As to potential military objectives, many interviewees, including shop owners and
local residents, said that due to efforts by the local council, there were no armed groups
present in Atarib. Others, however, claimed that — from 9 November onwards — there was
on-going infighting between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Nour al-Din al-Zinki in western
Aleppo governorate countryside, including in Atarib, Abzemo, and Orum al-Kubra. On 11
November, civilians took to the streets of Orum al-Kubra to protest against the
confrontations between the two groups. The protest was violently repressed and three
children were shot dead.
27.
Some interviewees claimed that there was on-going infighting between Hay’at
Tahrir al-Sham and Nour al-Din al-Zinki in western Aleppo governorate. The Commission
received conflicting information about a possible target, including unconfirmed reports of a
meeting between armed groups and tribal elders. Analysis of the site and other information
indicate that a specific location was targeted.
28.
Multiple airstrikes in Atarib employed at least two types of aerial bombs — blast
weapons and earth penetrators. Images and videos from the site show evidence of at least
six impacts. Widespread damage is consistent with blast weapons such as the unguided
OFAB-500 causing devastating surface damage that destroyed a large part of the market
area. Additionally, at least one bomb carrying multiple smaller earth penetrating munitions
caused several impacts collapsing multiple buildings. One entry hole was found containing
an unexploded bomblet. Evidence at the scene and video evidence is consistent with a
BeTAB-500 unguided “bunker buster” carrying 12 rocket-assisted penetrators. The Russian
Air Force has used the BeTAB throughout Aleppo province. The impact points show that
unguided bombs roughly fell in a line with a 250 m dispersion which suggests that the
aircraft lined up on the target dropping weapons into an area that formed a target box rather
than conducting a precision strike against the point target.
29.
The likely use of unguided weapons in a densely populated area such as the one hit
in Atarib raises the issue of how accurate the weapons were. Circular Error Probable (CEP)
is the measure of precision for a guided bomb. It means that 50 per cent of bombs fall
within a circle the size of the CEP and 50 per cent outside of it — so a weapon with a 10 m
CEP will fall within 10 m half the time and farther than 10 m half the time. When precision
weapons miss they usually have close misses. In contrast, unguided bombs do not measure
accuracy with CEP. Their accuracy varies greatly depending on a number of factors
including aircraft, altitude, speed, heading, training of the pilot, and wind.
30.
Unguided bomb accuracy is not officially measured in CEP but military studies have
produced estimates of their accuracy using CEP as a rule of thumb. Using visual targeting,
CEP is estimated as 122 m at an altitude of 3000 m. As the altitude increases, the accuracy
of unguided bombs diminishes greatly. Using an advanced targeting computer, Russian
sources estimate that aircraft are able to reliably attain a 25 m CEP with unguided bombs.
36
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