A/HRC/10/61 page 19 increasing water scarcity, and floods and storms.82 It is estimated that climate change-related displacement will primarily occur within countries and that it will affect primarily poorer regions and countries.83 56. It is possible to distinguish between four main climate change-related displacement scenarios,84 where displacement is caused by: • Weather-related disasters, such as hurricanes and flooding • Gradual environmental deterioration and slow onset disasters, such as desertification, sinking of coastal zones and possible total submersion of low-lying island States • Increased disaster risks resulting in relocation of people from high-risk zones • Social upheaval and violence attributable to climate change-related factors 57. Persons affected by displacement within national borders are entitled to the full range of human rights guarantees by a given State,85 including protection against arbitrary or forced displacement and rights related to housing and property restitution for displaced persons.86 To the extent that movement has been forced, persons would also qualify for increased assistance and protection as a vulnerable group in accordance with the Guiding Principles on Internal 82 More recent studies refer to estimates for the same period of 200 million (Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 2006, available at http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_ index.htm) and 250 million (Human tide: the real migration crisis, Christian Aid 2007). See also IPCC AR4 WGII Report, p. 365 and the Norwegian Refugee Council, Future floods of refugees: A comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration, 2008. 83 See e.g. contributions to Forced Migration Review, vol. 1, No. 31, October 2008. 84 Adapted from typology proposed by the Representative of the Secretary-General on human rights of internally displaced persons and also used in the working paper submitted by the IASC informal group on migration/displacement and climate change, “Climate Change, Migration and Displacement: who will be affected”, 31 October 2008. 85 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (E/CN.4/1998/53/Add.2, annex), principles 1, para. 1, and 6, para. 1 . 86 Principle 8.2, Principles on Housing and Property Restitution for Refugees and Displaced Persons (endorsed by the Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights in resolution 2005/2); FAO/IDMC/NRC/OCHA/OHCHR/UN-Habitat/UNHCR: Housing and Property Restitution for Refugees and Displaced Persons: Implementing the “Pinheiro Principles”, 2007.