A/HRC/10/61 page 5 Observed and projected impacts 8. Amongst the main observed and projected changes in weather patterns related to global warming are:9 • Contraction of snow-covered areas and shrinking of sea ice • Sea level rise and higher water temperatures • Increased frequency of hot extremes and heatwaves • Heavy precipitation events and increase in areas affected by drought • Increased intensity of tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) 9. The IPCC assessments and a growing volume of studies provide an increasingly detailed picture of how these changes in the physical climate will impact on human lives. IPCC AR4 outlines impacts in six main areas: ecosystems; food; water; health; coasts; and industry, settlement and society,10 some of which are described further below in relation to their implications for specific human rights. Unequal burden and the equity principle 10. Industrialized countries, defined as annex I countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have historically contributed most to manmade greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the impacts of climate change are distributed very unevenly, disproportionally affecting poorer regions and countries, that is, those who have generally contributed the least to human-induced climate change. 11. The unequal burden of the effects of climate change is reflected in article 3 of the Convention (referred to as “the equity article”). It stipulates that parties should protect the climate system “on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”; that developed countries “should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof” and that full consideration should be given to the needs of developing countries, especially “those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change” and “that would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden under the Convention”.11 Giving operational meaning to the “equity principle” is a key challenge in ongoing climate change negotiations. 9 With the exception of impacts on tropical cyclones, the IPCC AR4 considers these impacts very likely (more than 90 per cent certainty). Projections on increased intensity of tropical cyclones are considered likely (more than 66 per cent certainty). 10 See IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report, pp. 48-53. 11 UNFCCC, art. 3, paras. 1 and 2.