A/HRC/35/26 report by the Social Protection Floor Advisory Group (the “Bachelet report”) and in the Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No. 202). And Sustainable Development Goal 1 advocates “appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors”. 46. Under the Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No. 202), States should establish and maintain social protection floors ensuring that, at a minimum, “over the life cycle, all in need have access to essential health care and to basic income security which together secure effective access to goods and services defined as necessary at the national level”. This comprises essential health care, including maternity care, and basic income security for children, for active-age adults in cases of sickness, unemployment, maternity and disability, and for older persons. These goals may be achieved through any of the following schemes: universal benefit, social insurance, social assistance, negative income tax, public employment and employment support. 47. Basic income is thus not at odds with social protection floors, with universality being a key assumption of both. While basic income proponents have suggested that the reference to “basic income security” in recommendation No. 202 is a much broader concept than their idea of basic income, they see social protection floors as a “significant step toward basic income by legitimizing the idea of basic income security as an essential ingredient for human development”.79 IV. Basic income and poverty 48. A basic income could have vastly different effects, depending on the starting point. In wealthier countries with more established social welfare systems, there is a greater risk that replacing existing social support schemes would leave the poor worse off. But in a country with only a minimal social support scheme in place, any regular, unconditional transfers to the poor and marginalized would be a net positive in the absence of more attractive alternative schemes such as a social protection floor. Despite the importance of the current debate in India and the pilot projects in Kenya, most of the policy debate has focused on developed countries and their specific needs and perspectives. If the concept is to achieve broader uptake, the debate needs to be expanded and diversified. 49. Between 1974 and 1979, a negative income tax experiment ran in the Canadian city of Dauphin. Subsequent analysis of the data confirmed various positive effects, including a drop in hospitalization rates, especially for mental health and accident admissions, as well as an increase in year 12 school registrations.80 50. In Canada, two basic income approaches have been the subject of macroeconomic modelling: a full basic income for all Canadians, and a negative income tax under which the richest receive nothing and the poorest receive the maximum income supplement. 81 Neither payment is adjusted for age. In terms of poverty, the conclusion was that:82 Cancelling existing income transfer programmes in favour of a single basic income results either in dramatically higher levels of poverty, or ethically and politically unsupportable compromises where seniors are pushed into poverty to lift up adults and children. The more acceptable and feasible approach would be to set up a new basic income on top of the 33 transfers that already exist, thus creating only winners, though the main beneficiaries would be middle-aged Canadians. 51. However, the negative income tax option would be problematic for 18- to 29-yearolds and for senior women. The Canadian examples demonstrate the potentially positive 79 80 81 82 Ian Orton, “Opinion: The UN Social Protection Floor ‘Global Fund’: An entry point for the basic income?”, 3 June 2013. Available from http://basicincome.org/news/2013/06/opinion-the-un-socialprotection-floor-global-fund-an-entry-point-for-the-basic-income/. Evelyn L. Forget, “The town with no poverty: using health administration data to revisit outcomes of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income field experiment” (University of Manitoba, February 2011). Macdonald, “A policymaker’s guide to basic income”, p. 6. Ibid., p. 8. 15