A/HRC/16/49 8. Second, agriculture must develop in ways that increase the incomes of smallholders. Food availability is, first and foremost, an issue at the household level, and hunger today is mostly attributable not to stocks that are too low or to global supplies unable to meet demand, but to poverty; increasing the incomes of the poorest is the best way to combat it. Cross-country comparisons show that GDP growth originating in agriculture is at least twice as effective in reducing poverty as GDP growth originating outside agriculture.8 But some types of investments are more effective than others in achieving that objective. The multiplier effects are significantly higher when growth is triggered by higher incomes for smallholders, stimulating demand for goods and services from local sellers and serviceproviders. When large estates increase their revenue, most of it is spent on imported inputs and machinery, and much less trickles down to local traders.9 Only by supporting small producers can we help break the vicious cycle that leads from rural poverty to the expansion of urban slums, in which poverty breeds more poverty. 9. Third, agriculture must not compromise its ability to satisfy future needs. The loss of biodiversity, unsustainable use of water, and pollution of soils and water are issues which compromise the continuing ability for natural resources to support agriculture. Climate change, which translates in more frequent and extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods and less predictable rainfall, is already having a severe impact on the ability of certain regions and communities to feed themselves. It is also destabilizing markets.10 The change in average temperatures is threatening the ability of entire regions, particularly those living from rain-fed agriculture, to maintain actual levels of agricultural production.11 Less fresh water will be available for agricultural production, and the rise in sea level is already causing the salinization of water in certain coastal areas, making water sources improper for irrigation purposes. By 2080, 600 million additional people could be at risk of hunger, as a direct result of climate change.12 In Sub-Saharan Africa, arid and semi-arid areas are projected to increase by 60 million to 90 million hectares, while in Southern Africa, it is estimated that yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 per cent between 2000 and 2020.13 Losses in agricultural production in a number of developing countries could be partially compensated by gains in other regions, but the overall result would be a decrease of at least 3 per cent in productive capacity by the 2080s, and up to 16 per cent if the anticipated carbon fertilization effects (incorporation of carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis) fail to materialize.14 10. Most efforts in the past have focused on improving seeds and ensuring that farmers are provided with a set of inputs that can increase yields, replicating the model of industrial 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 World Bank, World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development, Washington D.C., 2007, p. 6. See also J. Alston et al., “A meta-analysis of rates of return to agricultural R&D,” Research report 113, Washington D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2002. Ulrich Hoffmann, “Assuring food security in developing countries under the challenges of climate change: Key trade and development issues of a profound transformation of agriculture,” Discussion Paper No. 201, UNCTAD, November 2010, p. 15. For a fuller review of the impacts of climate change on human rights, including the right to food, see A/HRC/10/61. “ Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,” Cambridge, UK, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007, p. 67. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world, New York, 2007, p. 90. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge Univ. Press, chapter 9. William R. Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture. Impact Estimates by Country, Washington D.C., Center for Global Development/Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2007, p. 96. 5