A/HRC/38/33 25. But such views are surely “macro-incompatible”, especially after a decade in which military expenditures have risen 64 per cent in Asia and Oceania, 48 per cent in Africa, 19 per cent in the Middle East and 6 per cent in Europe. 51 In the years ahead, even more dramatic increases look likely. While the issue is a potential minefield for IMF, its impact on the overall macroeconomic equation is so great that it can hardly be ignored. It is the proverbial elephant in the room, and it behoves IMF to engage with it and to explore what options might be feasible to draw the attention of Governments and others to the macroeconomic significance of military spending.52 C. Precedents for change: economic and gender inequality 26. The work of IMF on social protection is closely linked to its work on tackling growing inequality and promoting gender equality. 27. Oxfam has praised IMF for becoming a global leader in highlighting the economic inequality crisis in recent years. 53 Indeed, comments by the Managing Director have attracted much attention, and IMF research has shown that “lower net inequality is robustly correlated with faster and more durable growth” and “redistribution appears generally benign in terms of its impact on growth.” Those findings challenge the orthodox views about an inevitable trade-off between redistribution and growth,54 and have implications for IMF policy advice. 55 But considerable tensions remain between that theory and IMF practice, which is still more likely to be preoccupied with efficiency and targeting than redistribution aimed at lowering inequality.56 While change might be afoot, it has not yet consistently made its way into policy advice.57 One observer has suggested that the focus of IMF on inequality “is beginning … to have an impact through pilot analysis in 25 countries”,58 but others are less persuaded. Thus, Oxfam concludes that those “pilots” fail to “fully explore alternatives to rapid fiscal and monetary tightening”, “focus on compensating ‘losers’ rather than questioning the structural reforms themselves”, and tend to see social protection “as a Band-Aid to compensate for the negative effects of other measures”.59 IMF has not responded publicly to any of those criticisms, except in staff comments at the annual meeting’s Civil Society Policy Forum. 28. Until around 2013, “gender” had not been a term that could easily be found in IMF documents.60 Initially, IMF had focused on female labour force participation and income inequality.61 In 2015, gender was included as a structural issue that staff could consider in Article IV surveillance, 62 and gender pilot studies were then undertaken in Article IV 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 See http://visuals.sipri.org/. Research suggests that moving towards gender parity among IMF economists might lead to greater attention being paid to the negative economic and social consequences of high levels of military spending. M. May, G. McGarvey and D. Kucera, “Gender and European Economic Policy: A Survey of the Views of European Economists on Contemporary Economic Policy”, in Kyklos International Review for Social Sciences, (vol. 71, No. 1), February 2018, pp. 162–183. Oxfam, “Great Expectations: Is the IMF turning words into action on inequality?” (October 2017), p. 2. J. Ostry, A. Berg and C. Tsangarides, “Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth”, IMF Staff Discussion Note (February 2014). P. Loungani and J. Ostry, “The IMF’s Work on Inequality: Bridging Research and Reality”, available at https://blogs.imf.org/2017/02/22/the-imfs-work-on-inequality-bridging-research-and-reality/. IMF Policy Paper, “Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality” (2014), p. 22 and 30–32. “Tackling Inequality”, Fiscal Monitor (October 2017). J.A. Ocampo, J.M. Griesgraber, M. Martin and N. Coplin, “Are the Multilateral Organizations Fighting Inequality?” (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, July 2017), pp. 10–11. “Great Expectations”, p. 21. Bretton Woods Project, “The IMF and Gender Equality: A Compendium of Feminist Macroeconomic Critiques” (October 2017), p. 12. K. Elborgh-Woytek et al, “Women, Work, and the Economy: Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity”, IMF Staff Discussion Note (2013); and C. Gonzalez et al, “Catalyst for Change: Empowering Women and Tackling Income Inequality”, IMF Staff Discussion Note (2015). “Guidance Note for Surveillance”, p. 39. 9