A/HRC/15/48 V. Some reflections on recent developments 51. The human rights and humanitarian law violations in Somalia depict a grim picture indeed. The situation deteriorated further since the last report of the independent expert to the Human Rights Council. The fighting among the warring groups had intensified during the month of Ramadan, which led to a high number of casualties and massive displacement. Al–Shabaab and its allies had reportedly consolidated their stronghold on people under their control, imposing harsh laws and justice. Somalis continued to bleed and suffer terrible pain. 52. However, despite this grim reality, there appears to be a glimmer of hope. A faint light is slowly emerging at the end of the proverbial dark tunnel. TFG has survived despite serious onslaughts by the insurgents. Its Armed Forces, with the help of AMISOM troops, have managed to hold on to and defend areas of Mogadishu under TFG control. Thus the earlier fears that it might crumble under pressure did not materialize. 53. Since he was not able to visit areas under the control of the militants, the independent expert had no way of knowing how people there felt about them. However, he spoke to people who had recently fled such areas, including some Al–Shabaab fighters who had defected and sought refuge abroad, who all said that Al–Shabaab had little or no support from the general population and ruled through fear. Those who joined them were mostly forced or lured by money. The general population in fact strongly resented the harsh laws imposed upon them. They continued to hope against hope that, despite its shortcomings, TFG would eventually emerge as a viable Federal Government for Somalia. 54. If the above reading is correct, it should provide an added incentive for the United Nations and the international community to continue to back TFG and help it with greater vigour to grow into an effective Government which would not only be able to hold on to Mogadishu, albeit with the help of AMISOM, but also gradually extend its control through a combined military and political strategy. 55. Under such a strategy, TFG would gradually extend its present boundaries through recovering territories held by the insurgents, by political means and/or military, and establish its hold over them. The latter would be facilitated if TFG developed a positive image in the minds of the people by its hard work, dedication and honesty. Such an image would make it easier for them to be welcomed by the population of territories it recovered from the insurgents. However, to make it possible, it would need the support of the international community. 56. In March 2010, when the independent expert presented his report to the Council, he had not been so hopeful. But this time, for reasons mentioned below, he thought that the prospects for such an option had brightened. However, he feels that it would only work if the international community was ready to support the process both in the medium and the long term, keeping in mind that there could be no lasting short–term military solution for Somalia. 57. The medium to long–term perspective is based on the fact that almost twenty years of internecine warfare has caused so much of damage to Somalia – to its basic infrastructures, institutions, social structures, social values and norms and in the State itself – that it is not realistic to expect that they could be repaired in the short term. It would require a long process of steady rebuilding of the basic components of state–building, the foremost among which are trust and social cohesion, which have been key casualties of the conflict. 58. This optimism in the midst of continuing and intensified carnage can perhaps be justified on the following two grounds. First, Al–Shabaab’s efforts to win over more 13