A/HRC/37/30 D. Integrating economic, social and cultural rights in early warning and risk analysis 51. There is increasing evidence that violations of economic, social and cultural rights are causes, consequences and often even predictors of an escalation in human rights violations, violence and conflict. Despite the obvious connection between economic, social and cultural rights and social unrest, existing early warning mechanisms tend to overlook those linkages. 52. In his report to the Economic and Social Council on early warning and economic, social and cultural rights (E/2016/58), the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights illustrated the links between economic, social and cultural rights and violence, social unrest and conflict through concrete cases from across the globe. He further highlighted the crucial elements of a human rights analysis that should inform early warning and conflict prevention efforts in the United Nations system and beyond. 53. While no single universal model can predict with certainty where and when unrest and conflict will erupt in the absence of preventive measures, some core elements regarding economic, social and cultural rights could effectively inform early warning analysis and preventative efforts. Some risk factors are considered cross-cutting and apply to any situation. They include severe inequality, lack of access to effective grievance mechanisms, lack of meaningful consultation, lack of democratic space for an active civil society and lack of media independence. Other risk factors are thematic and specific to certain contexts. They include unequal access to natural resources, in particular land, degradation in social services and unemployment. 54. For each of those risk factors, corresponding human rights indicators (structural, process and outcome) could be developed to inform an early warning analysis. For example, in relation to the cross-cutting risk factor for civil society space, the criminalization of the activity of human rights defenders could well prepare the ground for violence against them, possibly leading to social unrest. A useful indicator for such a risk factor would be the number of verified cases of the killing, kidnapping, enforced disappearance, arbitrary detention and torture of journalists, associated media personnel, trade unionists and human rights advocates in the previous 12 months. 19 55. Another example is the thematic risk factor for unequal access, control and ownership over land and natural resources, and the failure to distribute fairly the benefits deriving from investment or development projects, which have in many situations led to violence, social unrest and conflict. Certain structural indicators could help assess the existence of relevant legislation guaranteeing the rights to social security, health and education. Process indicators could reveal the proportion of the budget allocated to health, education and social security, while outcome indicators could provide information on the coverage of social security and the number of persons entitled to benefits compared to those in need, and whether particular groups are affected. Outcome indicators could also comprise unemployment rates, including long-term unemployment (one year or more), in the target population group and education level. V. Conclusions and recommendations 56. Disasters, crises and conflicts, including those induced by climate change, pose a significant threat to progress towards sustainable development and the realization of all human rights, including economic, social and cultural rights. The present report has shown that natural hazards are not disasters in and of themselves. They become disasters depending on the multiple and complex interplay between the exposure, vulnerability and resilience of individuals and communities. Economic, social and cultural rights and other relevant human rights, such as the right to life, the right to 19 12 More information on human rights indicators can be found at www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Indicators/Pages/HRIndicatorsIndex.aspx.