A/HRC/13/21 progress remains to be translated into positive action on the ground. Some of the major challenges that need to be addressed are set out below. A. Moving beyond conflicts and camps 40. The stereotypical image of internally displaced persons — reinforced by media reports — remains that of people who flee conflict areas and end up destitute in camps or collective shelters. The reality is far more complex. Every year more people are displaced by natural disasters and development projects than by conflict and violence. The majority of the displaced live with host families or communities, or merge with the urban poor. 1. Natural disasters, climate change and internal displacement 41. Natural disasters displace more people than any other cause but their displacement tends to be shorter than conflict or violence-related displacement.13 The effects of climate change are likely to further increase the numbers of the disaster-displaced.14 Not only is climate change expected to increase the magnitude and frequency of sudden-onset disasters such as storms or flooding, but it is also likely to exacerbate slow-onset disasters, including droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels, that also force people to move.15 As a result of the effects of climate change, between 50 and 250 million people may move by the middle of the century on a permanent or temporary basis.16 Many of them will move voluntarily as part of adaptation strategies of families and communities, yet others will have no other choice but to leave their homes. Most of these displaced will stay within their country as internally displaced persons. 42. Although the 1998 Guiding Principles already identify natural disasters as one of the causes of internal displacement, natural disasters and their human consequences were for a long time not considered through the lens of internal displacement. This changed in the wake of large-scale disasters such as the tsunami of 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with the Representative emphasizing the relevance of the Guiding Principles to such situations. 43. After visiting a number of countries affected by disaster-induced displacement, the Representative found that too often insufficient attention is paid to the multiple human rights challenges they face in these situations.17 The rights of persons displaced by natural disasters often suffer not only because of weaknesses in the disaster response but also because disaster preparedness and disaster mitigation measures were not adequately put into effect. Disaster induced displacement often exacerbates pre-existing patterns of discrimination, putting already marginalized and vulnerable groups at increased risk of 13 14 15 16 17 GE.10-10161 According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)/Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Monitoring Disaster Displacement in the Context of Climate Change (September 2009), at least 36 million people were displaced by sudden-onset natural disasters which occurred in 2008, compared to 4.6 million people who were newly internally displaced during the same year as a result of conflict and violence. See A/64/214. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm. The first IPCC assessment report (1990) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration and estimated that by 2050, 150 million people could be displaced by climate change-related phenomena, such as desertification, increasing water scarcity, and floods and storms. More recent studies refer to estimates for the same period of 200 million (Stern Review 2006) and 250 million (Christian Aid (2007), Human tide: the real migration crisis). See A/HRC/10/31/Add.1. 11