A/HRC/41/39 V. Paths to transformation A. Understanding the failure to act 1. The failure of governmental leadership 30. Sombre speeches by government officials at regular conferences are not leading to meaningful action. Thirty years of conventions appear to have done very little. From Toronto to Noordwijk to Rio to Kyoto to Paris, the language has been remarkably similar, as States continue to kick the can down the road. The essential elements of climate change were understood in the 1970s and scientists and advocates have been ringing alarm bells for decades. However, States have marched past every scientific warning and threshold, and what was once considered catastrophic warming now seems like a best-case scenario.54 31. Even today, too many countries are taking short-sighted steps in the wrong direction. In Brazil, President Bolsonaro has promised to open up the Amazon rainforest for mining, end demarcation of indigenous lands and weaken environmental agencies and protections. 55 China is moving to end reliance on coal, while exporting coal-fired power plants abroad56 and failing to implement its regulations for methane emissions at home. 57 In the United States of America, until recently the world’s biggest producer of global emissions, President Trump has placed former lobbyists in oversight roles, 58 adopted industry talking points,59 presided over an aggressive rollback of environmental regulations 60 and is actively silencing and obfuscating climate science. 61 32. The 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change represents the most promising step in addressing climate change to date. However, the commitments States have adopted in pursuit of the Agreement are woefully insufficient and would lead to a devastating 3°C of warming by 2100.62 Efforts would need to be tripled just to limit global warming to 2°C and increased fivefold to hold warming at 1.5°C. Time is running out to limit global warming to either threshold and States are failing to meet even their current inadequate commitments.63 2. Failure on the part of corporate actors 33. Some look with hope to the private sector for innovations or strategically engage with corporations in the light of decades of inaction by States. However, the track record of the fossil fuel industry makes clear that overreliance on profit-driven actors would almost guarantee massive human rights violations, with the wealthy catered to and the poorest left behind. If climate change is used to justify business-friendly policies and widespread privatization, the exploitation of natural resources and global warming may be accelerated rather than prevented. 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 8 Nathaniel Rich, “Losing Earth: the decade we almost stopped climate change”, New York Times Magazine, 1 August 2018. Dom Philips, “Jair Bolsonaro launches assault on Amazon rainforest protections”, The Guardian, 2 January 2019. Michael Lelyveld, “China pushes coal-fired power plants abroad”, Radio Free Asia, 24 July 2017. Scott Miller and others, “China’s coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions”, Nature Communications, vol. 10 (January 2019). Lisa Friedman, “Trump says he’ll nominate Andrew Wheeler to head the E.P.A.”, New York Times, 16 November 2018. Environmental Data and Governance Initiative, “Changes to EPA’s ‘natural gas extraction – hydraulic fracturing’ webpage”, 9 October 2018. Nadja Popovich, Livia Albeck-Ripka and Kendra Pierre-Louis, “78 environmental rules on the way out under Trump”, New York Times, 28 December 2018. Sabin Center and Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, “Silencing Science Tracker”. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC, summary for policymakers, p. 18. UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2018, pp. xiv–xv.