result could be that it would jeopardise compliance with the agreed parameters of the IMF loan. 281. Official statistics released in May indicate that Ukraine’s GDP dropped 1% in the first quarter of 2014. The recession is expected to worsen over the course of the year: IMF and the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade forecast a 3% decline in GDP, while other, more pessimistic forecasts point to 5-10% declines in output and income. The largest decline in exports (70-85%—relative to the fourth quarter of 2013) has already been recorded in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Cherkasy, and Khmelnitskyi, as well in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Any collapse in exports could trigger a decline in industrial output, and subsequently in household incomes and livelihoods. These trends should be closely monitored. 282. There are concerns that if these macro-economic tendencies continue, the State will no longer be able to guarantee existing social standards, which could lead to the social unrest spreading throughout the country. VI. PARTICULAR HUMAN RIGHTS CHALLENGES IN CRIMEA A. Civil and political rights of Crimean residents 283. Crimean residents faced difficulties in exercising their civil and political rights. A very small number participated in the Presidential elections of 25 May. Simplified registration procedures had been put in place to ensure that residents of Crimea and persons who resettled from Crimea to other regions can take part in the vote. Ukrainian citizens living in Crimea had to register in person at any polling station on the mainland no later than five days prior to the elections. The HRMMU monitored the situation near Kherson, where most of the Crimean voters had registered. Some 20 cars had left Crimea and were welcomed by local authorities. They drove to the polling station in a column with Crimean and Ukrainian flags. Prior to the election they had been summoned by the Crimean police for “conversations" and issued ‘warnings’ about the unacceptability of ‘extremist activities’. While the cars were crossing the administrative border, representatives of the Crimean ‘self-defence’ reportedly wrote down license plates, passport numbers and driving licenses' details. Among those who intended to vote, many allegedly did not do so because of the cost of travelling, the uncertainty linked to having to cross the administrative border and the fear of reprisals by the authorities in Crimea. 284. During its month-long monitoring of events in Crimea, the HRMMU noted a continuation of worrying trends, including instances of enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions, violence and ill-treatment committed by the so-called ‘Crimean self-defence’, often targeting journalists, human rights defenders and political opponents, and impunity for human rights violations. Furthermore the enforcement of the Russian Federation law on the territory of Crimea, at variance with UN General Assembly resolution 68/262 and applicable bodies of international law, is creating difficulties for Crimean residents to enjoy their human rights, as there are many differences with Ukrainian laws. Rule of law and the judiciary 119 | P a g e